GayThailand Forum : Red-Shirt Rally - GayThailand Forum

With the Friday, March 12 Red-Shirt rally imminent, the media is having a wonderful time hyping it all up. Today's news reports have Thaksin's family flying out of Thailand to avoid being held hostage in case things turn violent. It has the Prime Minister heading for a safe house. If has the embassies pleading for peaceful demonstrations. It has the military ready to put down riots. It has dire warnings for farang to stay away from protest areas. Maps are being published showing the major danger areas.

You know what my reaction is? Bullshit! While I do recommend staying away from the protests, my own prediction is still that the whole thing will turn out to be a big nothing. I could be completely wrong, of course, and I very well could be eating my words by Friday night, but I think in Pattaya once again you would never know anything is going on unless you're watching it on TV. I think it will be a perfectly normal day in Pattaya with the possible exception of a small demonstration somewhere. I don't predict major traffic tie-ups, the calling out of riot police, or anything else in Pattaya.

In Bangkok I don't foresee airport takeovers, sit-ins at government facilities, or tremendous numbers of protesters. I think at most there will be a few thousand protesters out there, if that many. But tens of thousands out there causing chaos? I don't think so.

I believe most of this is all media hype. You're not going to find me locking myself inside closed doors, cowering in a corner, that's for sure. I intend to go about having a normal day and I don't expect to encounter any problems at all. Maybe a greater police presence, but that's about it.

So, what's your prediction? Are my predictions essentially right or do you think I'm going to end up having to write an "I'm Eating My Words" post? Do you think it's mostly media hype? Do you think Thailand is going to come apart at the seams on Friday?

What do you think will happen?

This will be rally #?, where they expect at least 1,000,000 people to participate. Indeed, the media are hyping up the hole thing, but TiT and you never know what will happen.
For me, I hope that you don't have to write an "I eat my words" post, because I intend to move to Bangkok on Thursday evening..........

I disagree with GB on this one. The trouble with the sort of hype we have been subjected to is that it tends to feed off itself. If what the English media has been printing is similar to - or perhaps more muted than - that in the Thai media, I can indeed see vast numbers joining this protest. We know, for example, that van and bus drivers have been offered cash (Bt. 4,000 I think) to bring people to Bangkok. We know, too, that the red shirts erstwhile leader is severely wounded. He will not have many more opportunities to attempt to topple the government before he is swamped in a sea of litigation that could, if found guilty again, deprive him of that part of his fortune here that the Supreme Court enabled him to keep. Like all wounded animals and toppled dictators, he has nothing to lose by lashing out and rolling the dice at least one more time.

Thaksin's family? Remember that they also fled the country in April last year before the bloody Bangkok riots. Fleeing now "to avoid avoid being held hostage"? That really is bullshit! Who on earth would hold them?

As for taking over Suvarnabhumi, I am pretty certain the government and the army must have plans to bring in the tanks to stop hordes descending on the airport. It's not that difficult to road-block the access roads from the north. However, and here's the rub - unless they also ring-fence the public roads that run up both sides of the airport just outside its perimeter, tens of thousands of red shirts could relatively simply just tear down the fencing, rush in and just sit down on the runways. Why bother with the terminal which is where everyone expects any action would take place? Once news of that got out, thousands more would join. What do you do then to eject them without violence erupting, I wonder?

I am scheduled to fly out on Friday afternoon and return on Tuesday afternoon next week. If I have to eat my words, I will do so thereafter!

fountainhall, on 10 March 2010 - 11:33 AM, said:

Looks like one of us will have to eat a plate of words fazoo, with a possible side order of crow.

Sitting down on the runways? If they do then they're lucky I'm not an air traffic controller. If I was, you know what I would say to an approaching 747? "Clear to land, runway one-niner left."

First off, I have no idea what will or will not happen. However, rumors abound. If the airport is closed again, though, it is likely they will just do what they did last time - block access roads so no one can get in or out. But, having said that, I doubt they will close the airport - sort of a case of been there, done that. I have heard of plans to take to the streets in automobiles and motorcycles and drive legally, but at a snail's pace. This would totally snarl the city. There are also rumors of sit down strikes at busy intersections. And...well, you name it, where there's a rumor it will happen. It will be exciting - even if nothing happens.

RichLB, on 10 March 2010 - 04:04 PM, said:

The only thing about any of it that would excite me would be if it causes the exchange rate to move in our favor.

The rest of it, unless it becomes very violent, is, as you said, "been there, done that."

Honestly, I think there's a chance you could be wrong about this rally. I know the red-shirts tend to have a "final push" every month or two, but this one sounds quite a bit more serious for a few reasons. The government is invoking the ISA, thousands of weapons "disappeared" from a military camp, and probably the biggest sign of all, it's estimated 20,000 monks will participate in the demonstrations.

If even say 5000 monks get involved, that's a pretty a big deal. It would definitely make people pay more attention, plus probably add fuel to the fire. I guess we'll find out in a day or two though.

cdnmatt, on 11 March 2010 - 01:50 AM, said:

Most likely I'm totally wrong. But the more the media hypes it, and you should see the jubilee the media is having today, the more I think most of what we're being told is just media crap.

I'm sure there will be a lot of Red-Shirts out there in Bangkok. I'm also sure whatever takes place will occur in a very limited area and that will be it. In Pattaya, I don't think anything is going to happen at all.

Most Thais I talk to tell me they're sick and tired of the whole thing and they don't plan to be any part of it. The less educated and more poverty stricken they are, the more they like Thaksin.

I don't think it's even about Thaksin anymore. I wouldn't be surprised if most of the Red-Shirts couldn't tell you what it is about. I'm not so sure myself anymore.

Oh well, if the government wasn't in some form of disruption, then I guess it just wouldn't be Thailand. They'll have their rally and then it will fizzle out. And what will change as a result? Probably nothing.

I really don't think it's going to be anything close to the total chaos the media would have us believe. Well, we'll find out soon enough. But tomorrow, Friday, I'm planning on being able to have a perfectly normal day here in Pattaya.

The head monk (similar to the pope) has said monks should not be involved in the rallies. Any monks who participate will have problems from within the monkhood.

lvdkeyes, on 11 March 2010 - 09:08 AM, said:

I agree with that head monk. The monks represent the Buddhist religion. I think they should keep themselves separate from politics. The only exception I would make to that would be if the political situation has some sort of direct effect on the practice of Buddhism. I see no such effect in the present political situation, so I think they should keep out of it because it has nothing to do with religion.

Gaybutton, on 10 March 2010 - 12:45 PM, said:

So who'd be responsible for a crashed US$200 million airliner and all those on board who are killed? I somehow doubt if your assets are sufficient to cover all that lot!

fountainhall, on 11 March 2010 - 05:23 PM, said:

That's simple. YOU would be responsible. That works for me . . .

Gaybutton, on 11 March 2010 - 05:37 PM, said:

. . . there's obviously some Thai logic in there that I can't figure out!

fountainhall, on 11 March 2010 - 06:14 PM, said:

Does this mean I am the inaugural listing on your "I Don't Get It" list?

Ok, the big day is here. It's Friday, March 12. It's 5:30am in Thailand. Don't ask what I'm doing up at this hour . . .

Now we'll see what will really happen. Will it be a major brouhaha or will it fail to amount to much? The gist of all the morning news articles is "please, no violence." That plea is coming from all sides.

Check in on this thread every so often during the day. If I encounter or hear about anything major taking place, I'll post it here. If you are present in Thailand, please do the same if you can.

Gaybutton, on 12 March 2010 - 05:29 AM, said:

It is now 9.00. Of all those who post from time to time, I would be the one most close to the demo-site. I now sit some 50 mtrs from Ratchdamnern Ave in a www-shop. I stay in this area since a few monthes and have in the time I am here-also earlier-seen some 5 ''mobs'' pass by. The last one was the (also) red shirts on 10/12=Constutution day (in their call to dissolve parlmt once more)-right in a festivities week for the 5/12 KIngs Birthday (which was magnificent, by the way).
Since the Judges verdict, there has been (and more and more once you start to look for it) Thai soldier/battle police (or whatever you may call it) on some spots-mostly ministeries. Schools have been closed-many are used to park Police-vans (riot gear etc.). The cleaning-out of Sanam Luang BTW still has not been done-only a few 100 pigeons caught.
To give some reassurance: ''mob'' is a normal Thai word, that simply means demonstration. It has not the negative meaning it has in english. In this democratic country its a basic right for anyone to demonstrate. All this repeated hype about airport-if somewhere in EU or AU or US the luggage handlers or air-traffic control go on strike-that whole airport also grinds to a halt-very much same effect. Also very much same civil rights.
What will happen? we'll see. Mostly I expect a slightly larger as on 10/12 sit-down demo (with overloud music, fuming speakers and the same-repeat ''poor Taksin and wicked yellows'' speeches for a day or so. Lots of stands for massages, food and selling of CDs and DVDs to put money on the coffins. Many reds somehow like to wear cowboyhats.
As this area (Banglamphu) is the main backpackers-ghetto of Thailand, if not South-East-Asia, there are (and its still quite busy) some 10-20.000 young farang (incl. Yipun etc.) travellers. I gather that about 95% of them have no clue whatsoever on what may happen or even that it is in this area they are in. Many will get struck when they discover the taxi to airport cannot move-and then start to scream and shout (their usual way of dealing with any frustration).
Khun GB I think is mostly right-even east side of BKK, and certainly 100 kms further on in PTY etc.-only the TV will show the sights-and daily life is as normal. And you beat me-I was up by 5.55.

Gaybutton, on 11 March 2010 - 09:25 PM, said:

Not yet. I like to try and solve problems - and I'm still working on this

pong, on 12 March 2010 - 09:20 AM, said:

It's nearly 11:00am now. I just looked at the "breaking news" items online. Nothing is even mentioned about anything special going on. I also looked at the Thai news stations on TV. All they showed was a few isolated small groups of Red-Shirts walking, carrying signs, and smiling and waving at the TV cameras.

I did see one post on an update web board that a convoy of Red-Shirts from Chiang Mai are heading to Bangkok, but they are only just now leaving. They can't even get as far as Bangkok until some time tonight.

Other than that, so far I can't find anything in the media.

A VERY small contingent of red shirts just past my office on 3rd road in Pattaya heading for BKK - no more than 30 people in a couple of pickups and a few motor bikes .... surprisingly small I thought ....

It's 12:55pm. I just had another look at Thai television news stations. The only thing being shown was a group of marchers and cars, about 300 people if that many, going up a major road in Bangkok. I couldn't tell which one. There are four lanes. They're doing their marching in the right two lanes, but leaving the left two lanes clear so that traffic can get through.

That's all I'm seeing on TV. I also just got a call from a Thai friend in Bangkok. Of course, I asked him about the rally. He laughed and said, "What rally?" He said if people want to participate in it, they have to go out and find where it is. He said the massive numbers of protesters simply have not materialized . . . at least not yet.

So far there seems to be less going on than even I anticipated. If the television news and online media are reporting accurately, and if it doesn't escalate, then this may very well turn out to be a major setback for Thaksin and his supporters.

Now I'm heading out the door to take a drive through Pattaya to see if I spot anything going on here. Patexpat seems to be on top of the doings around Third Road, so I'll have a look at other areas and leave reports about Third Road to him. I'll post what I see later. I'm taking my camera with me.

If any of you are in Pattaya, Bangkok, or anywhere else in Thailand, please let us know what you see happening, even if you see nothing happening.