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#1 reader

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Posted 05 October 2017 - 06:28 PM

From ABC News Australia

 

Thailand is the most dangerous destination for Australian tourists, with 203 deaths recorded in the last year.

 

Philippines was next with 126 deaths, followed by Indonesia, the United States and Vietnam.

The main causes of death were illness, natural causes and accidents.

 

The figures are part of an annual Consular State of Play report issued by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT).

 

Thailand also topped the list of consular cases (893), hospitalisations (195) and missing persons reports (74) during the 2016/17 financial year.

 

Officials urged Australians to take out travel insurance and warned of the limits to the consular services available.

 

"We may limit our assistance if we consider the circumstances warrant, for example, where the person's actions were illegal, or has put themselves or others at risk through deliberate or repeated reckless or negligent acts, or the person has a pattern of behaviour that has required multiple instances of consular assistance previously.

 

http://www.abc.net.a...ralians/9020610



#2 z909

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 12:21 AM

Typical lazy journalism, with no grasp of basic maths.
I suggest they need to divide the total deaths by the number of visitors, or better still deaths per visitor day to get some realistic assessment.

If somewhere like Syria hypothetically had 5 independent deaths, from 20 visitors, it would be more dangerous than 203 deaths in (say) 2 million in Thailand.

The high ratio of deaths to hospitalizations is also suspect.

#3 reader

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 03:01 AM

Typical lazy journalism, with no grasp of basic maths.

The high ratio of deaths to hospitalizations is also suspect.

 

The figures reported by ABC News Australia are the same as those reported by the government.

 

The actual numbers reported by Australian authorities can be easily accessed by clicking on following link to that report:

 

http://dfat.gov.au/a...ay-2016-17.aspx

 

If you have contrary data by all means please do the math and correct the lazy journalism.



#4 vinapu

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 04:32 AM

I don't think z909 questioned data at all, just it's frivolous / sensationalist  interpretation by ABC



#5 reader

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 05:26 AM

I don't think z909 questioned data at all, just it's frivolous / sensationalist  interpretation by ABC

 

It's also the truth...or do you have a problem with that?



#6 z909

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 05:33 AM

Quite right, Vinapu.   A very sensationalist interpretation of the data.

 

 

They cannot reasonably claim Thailand is the most dangerous country for Aussie visitors without calculating a death rate.

 

On a similar basis, I suppose ABC could count the number of Chinese people dying in China every year & conclude it's the most dangerous place in the world to live.    Whilst ignoring the large population. 

 

Incidentally, checking the Aussie goverment website, the main summary doesn't show how many people visited all of the countries.

 

However, from separate data sources:

203 died in Thailand from 529,000

126  died in the Philippines from 251,000

 

So the death rate per visit in the Philippines is already higher.     I doubt that is the worst country, but since I'm not writing any headline claiming it is and am not being paid to write here, that is sufficient analysis.    More than the original journalist managed.

 

I'm very entitled to call the ABC journalist lazy.       



#7 z909

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 05:34 AM

It's also the truth...or do you have a problem with that?

 

It's not the truth.   The journalist has no grasp of simple numbers like death rates. 



#8 reader

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 05:38 AM

It's not the truth.   The journalist has no grasp of simple numbers like death rates. 

 

Then why don't you get off your high horse and prove it?  the numbers are are all available in great detail at the link. 

 

Or are you as lazy as you say the reporters were?



#9 reader

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 06:57 AM

It's not the truth.   The journalist has no grasp of simple numbers like death rates. 

 

I'm very entitled to call the ABC journalist lazy.

 

The journalist didn't report death rates; he reported total number of deaths. Thailand accounted 203 and the Philippines 126. Those are accurate numbers and not in dispute by either of us.

 

You're therefore not justified in calling the journalist lazy for reporting the truth.



#10 vinapu

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 09:06 AM

It's also the truth...or do you have a problem with that?

no problem at all for simple reason, according to sources I trust none of those 203 deaths was actually me despite being in Thailand 3 times in 2016.



#11 Alexx

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 01:01 PM

It's not sensationalist at all, Thailand is quite a dangerous country to visit. The more people buy travel health insurance thanks to reading such an article, the better!

#12 reader

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 01:36 PM

no problem at all for simple reason, according to sources I trust none of those 203 deaths was actually me despite being in Thailand 3 times in 2016.

 

May the force remain with you and the wind be always at your back.

 

And it can't hurt to pray that the odds remain in your favor. ;)



#13 vinapu

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 07:01 PM

May the force remain with you and the wind be always at your back.

 

And it can't hurt to pray that the odds remain in your favor. ;)

Amen

 

/ with wind in the back I know literal meaning of 'too much of good thing' saying, in my younger years while hiking mountains with heavy backpack I was still knocked down by the said  wind being  no more than 2 meters from the chasm , still have goose bumps at recollection/



#14 z909

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 09:50 PM

The journalist didn't report death rates; he reported total number of deaths. Thailand accounted 203 and the Philippines 126. Those are accurate numbers and not in dispute by either of us.

 

You're therefore not justified in calling the journalist lazy for reporting the truth.

 

The 203 deaths is a correct fact.    

 

The headline is the part I consider to be incorrect & lazy.    

 

203 deaths does not make Thailand the most dangerous place for Australians to visit, since the death rate in Thailand is lower than The Phillipines (& probably a few other countries).

 

If an Australian visits Thailand, the probability of death is lower than visiting The Philippines, so Thailand cannot possibly be the most dangerous country, based on this data.



#15 reader

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 10:42 PM

Well, I'll meet you halfway on this quote. I agree that If an Australian visits Thailand, the probability of death is lower than visiting The Philippines.

 

As for the remainder of the sentence (so Thailand cannot possibly be the most dangerous country, based on this data), it still remains the most dangerous in terms of greatest incidence of death.

 

In any case, our arguing about how many angels can dance on the top of a pin comes as little solace to the 329 Aussies who met their death in both destinations.



#16 reader

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 11:17 PM

Amen

 

/ with wind in the back I know literal meaning of 'too much of good thing' saying, in my younger years while hiking mountains with heavy backpack I was still knocked down by the said  wind being  no more than 2 meters from the chasm , still have goose bumps at recollection/

 

Escapes from grim reaper--no matter how narrow--are always better than the alternative.



#17 vinapu

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Posted 07 October 2017 - 02:32 AM

 

... our arguing about how many angels can dance on the top of a pin

nothing to argue , number is 57



#18 vinapu

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Posted 07 October 2017 - 02:34 AM

Escapes from grim reaper--no matter how narrow--are always better than the alternative.

and they improve an outlook on life helping to see always full half of glass



#19 z909

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Posted 07 October 2017 - 02:44 AM

By the ABC reporter logic, staying at home in Australia would be the most dangerous, since more than 203 Australians die every year.    

 

Anyhow, think we've probably done that avenue of the discussion, so let's move onto the death rate.

 

 

I was more surprised at what initially seemed like a high death rate of approx 1 death per 2500 visitors.   Approximately one death for every 5 plane loads of visitors.

 

Now looking at death rates, the ANNUAL death rate in Australia = 6.5 per 1000 people.   Exactly the same as in Thailand, 6.5 per 1000 people (by coincidence).   The rate is incidentally lower in the Philippines at 5 per 1000.   [ All OECD 2011 data].  Germany has a higher death rate at 10.4 per 1000.  Since Filipinos do not live to 200 years old, their figure obviously corresponds to a young & growing population.

 

Anyway, if the Aussie average visitor had (say) a 1 month visit, then we're down to a base rate of  0.54 per 1000 for the trip, which is 1 in 1852.      That's the rate for Aussies living in Australia or Thais living in Thailand.

 

The rate for tourists is higher, but not to a horrific level.

 

To figure out if the mortality rate is significantly higher than for them just staying in Australia, I think we need to know the duration of the trip and the age profile of the visitors, compared with the death rate for that age profile staying at home. 

 

If hypothetically, the mortality rate was then shown to be higher, I wonder what causes the difference ?     Thai minibuses ?   Standing in the crumple zone on the back of baht buses ?   Falling off them completely p*ssed ?    Dengue fever ?     

 

Well, the rate of fatalities from road accidents in Thailand is known to be higher.  



#20 reader

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Posted 07 October 2017 - 04:04 AM

 

If hypothetically, the mortality rate was then shown to be higher, I wonder what causes the difference ?     Thai minibuses ?   Standing in the crumple zone on the back of baht buses ?   Falling off them completely p*ssed ?    Dengue fever ?     

 

Well, the rate of fatalities from road accidents in Thailand is known to be higher.  

 

Located this BBC special report released in January this year:

 

Life and death on Thailand's lethal roads

 

There is a ritual that is now very familiar to Thais, before the two big holiday seasons of the year, in late December for the new year, and in April for the Songkran Festival.

 

The government will set a target for reducing fatalities on Thailand's notoriously dangerous roads, exhorting Thais not to speed, or drink and drive.

 

Sometimes good citizens will run publicity stunts, like the coffin-maker, who last year invited journalists to film the huge stockpile his workers were building up for the holiday season.

 

And every year these efforts fail.

 

The grim statistics of death and injury on the roads are tallied each day in the media with, as often as not, worse figures than the year before.

 

And so it was this last new year - 478 people lost their lives on the roads in just seven days.

In one horrific collision in Chonburi on 2 January, 25 people died - some burned to death in a crushed and overcrowded passenger van they could not escape.

 

Road accidents in Thailand
  • 2nd in the world for road accident deaths, after Libya

  • 24,000 people are estimated to die on Thai roads every year

  • 73% of those killed are motorcyclists

  • 36.9m vehicles ply Thai roads - it's gone up by 30% in the last five years

World Health Organization
 
Continues with video
 





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